Minecraft Viki (video wiki) ➜ https://minecraft.viki.gg
Did Dream Cheat? Here are some numbers not considered before.
» Breaking Minecraft Playlist – https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLR50dP3MW9ZWMSVz2LkRoob_KRf72xcEx
» Get a Minecraft Server – http://mcph.info/AntVenom
0:00 Introduction
1:36 Which Numbers are Right?
4:18 Correct the Bias (In a New Way)
6:50 Extra Considerations
11:34 Opinions
CREDITS
Dream – Providing the spreadsheet for the 5 earlier streams
55c3 – RNG Display Mod – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxB7uh0De7wkzGbbEtuY4hw
KaptainWutax – Helping with some of the raw math
Aspenuwu – Designing a neat simulator of the odds (unused in this video)
strawberryblock – Making a neat visual simulator
Minecraft Java Speedrun Discord
I’ll edit in more names as I remember them. It’s been a long week.
LINKS
Binomial Distribution Calculator – https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=binomial+probability
6 Original Runs YouTube Playlist – https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLx1aYTDJ7r-c2OdIadBZTj7Zha5yMNUsM
6 Original Runs Pearl Spreadsheet – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NJTdZnkF10nw2tDIS5hZZx8KmC2PC6I71XGtzc5iXLE/
6 Original Runs Blaze Spreadsheet – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P58S94yKB3Bm4A4_VotWyeelk_PvaTE1nDZx9DalEyk/
5 Older Runs Pearl Spreadsheet – https://imgur.com/a/XrQQjbq
RNG Display Mod by 55c3 – https://github.com/55c3/rng-tracker/
(Type /worldrng to see the world RNG, and rename any mob to “rng” using a nametag to see that entities RNG value)
SOCIAL MEDIA
» Twitter – http://www.twitter.com/AntVenom
» Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/AntVenomPage
» Instagram – http://instagram.com/TheAntVenom
» TwitchTV – http://twitch.tv/AntVenom
» Discord – http://discord.gg/AntVenom
WRITER, EDITOR, VOICE – AntVenom
» YouTube – http://www.youtube.com/AntVenom
» Twitter – http://www.twitter.com/AntVenom
MUSIC
» LEMMiNO – Cipher – https://soundcloud.com/lemmino/cipher
» Epidemic Sound (Covert Affairs)
» YouTube Audio Library (Far the Days Come, A Slow Dream)
source
Yup. I hate the drama, and made a video anyways. I used to live and breathe Minecraft speedrunning. One of the most popular videos on my channel is a Minecraft speedrun. As a channel of my size who used to speedrun a lot, I felt it was too important to stay quiet from this situation. So yes, I can hate the situation, and still feel the need to speak up.
When ant copies or accidentally copies a similar video from Karl Jacobs either way he's spreading facts to another fan base
Why do we divide 500000 by 38?
If we want to look at how many different ways 38 could have fit into 500000, wouldnt we be looking for something like 500000-38?
EDIT: Doesnt really matter, the resulting number is still 1 in 18 200 000
.
Innocent until proven guilty.
Also, it was not necessary to account for the older runs, due to that the rng could have been tampered with after that.
Accusers be like: He's still cheating
Great Video .The ending where you were mad scared me a bit
You guys are just haters insulting dream's speedrun( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Just a joke……dont go angry boi.
After all these years I’m glad to see antvenoms still thriving 🤧
it's been a while since i watched ant's content, i guess i should re-watch the old videos
This was a very mature way to approach this Drama. Some people use this as an opportunity to accuse Dream of being toxic, when really outside of this he's a fantastic guy. Former "Drama" and "Controversy" he's been a part of in the past were really just people wanting to hate on a popular guy with obsessive fans (Ex. Something as dumb as getting mad about the Squid Vote), but this one's really on Dream, and he should apologize.
so one thing what if he didn't actually cheat. I don't really follow dream or watch his stuff, but what if he actually did get this lucky? what if we're ruining this mans career for no reason. I mean its still possible that 1 chance still could have happened.
I've always enjoyed your content, and you seem like a smart one, so I have a question I've been dying to have answered about speedrunning, if you could help with it? Everyone says Dream cheated because of luck, without real evidence except for likelihood numbers, so I want to know how someone could during a livestream manipulate RNG values without leaving any evidence behind? Is there even a way to do that? Like, what program or script could he run that would change his RNG but not show up in logs later? I'm just genuinely curious about the feasibility of pulling that off, especially since I don't know all that much about Minecraft code (I've done basic server setup and such but I don't know how to manipulate the scripts or anything). Because to decide if I think Dream cheated or not what I actually have to weigh is NOT if he was too lucky or not, but rather what the chances are that he would get that lucky AGAINST what the chances are he could cheat in such a way and get away with it evidence-wise. Because if there really isn't a good explanation for if it's even possible to cheat like this without leaving solid evidence behind, wouldn't that leave no choice but to be inclined to believe he was just lucky? But if there IS a way he could cheat without leaving evidence that'd help me a lot in determining things.
I know obviously you can't go showing the exact codes to run and such because you don't wanna tell people how to cheat like that, but if you could give a brief description of the minimum basics to explain if it's possible or how difficult it is that'd be amazing!
lmao I love dreams content but when about 30 mostly certified people have double checked facts and reached conclusions his runs were in about 1 in 7-10 trillion chances he can't rly deny it can he
The inherent fallacy is that "1 in whatever ridiculously high number" doesn't mean you need this many attempts to be guaranteed a run like this. It means every single run has this same probability. So, in theory you COULD become lucky on the first try. If not on the first, maybe on the 11th or however many attemps dream took.
Personal opinion: Dream's luck is impossible, because he was going on a pace (before getting a 1-eye portal) that current Minecraft Bedrock world record has. And if you need to remember, this record is 13 minutes, because stronghold is right under the spawn and nether fortress is near the portal. You know, if you can get even near that number on Java, that's really questionable, since stronghold is fu*king 1500 blocks away.
Hey, this topic seems very emotional, but this is meant as constructive criticism. I’m a pharmaceutical data scientist.
First off: I appreciate you trying to argue from a scientific perspective.
That being said, your calculations are not really “hard facts”, but rather faulty. You f.e. use the binomial distribution for individual values, not value ranges, which completely distorts the actual odds of f.e. getting blaze rods. If you want to prove a thesis using binomial, you’ll have to add up the value you’re looking for and all the values which are even more unlikely to give the chance of an unlikely scenario like this ocurring. This generally improves the odds by a lot, so any arguments afterwards can’t really yet be made. This is not to say that you’d definitely arriva at a different conclusion, maybe its the same, but this is just one of multiple errors which makes your data non-interpretable.
Given that we’re trying to prove or disprove our thesis that its a statistical anomally we’ll then have to assume a standart distribution for easier testing (which is reasonable because our data set has a relatively high sample size) and with alpha = 2.5-5% prove or disprove our thesis. It’s then necessary to work out the odds of type I or type II errors occuring. This would have to be repeated for every single luck-event of every single run individually at first and could only then be chained together by f.e. multiplying the chances.
Again this is not to say that you’d arrive at a completely different conclusion, but it’s safe to say that you can’t judge this situation if your values are completely wrong. If you’re not dealing with statistics regularly, don’t make it seem as if you “only care about the numbers and facts”. This is a pretty clear example of confirmation bias. Again not meant as a personal attack, but as criticism.
Edit: To sum it up in more simple terms: you’re using statistical distributions wrong which makes your data completely inconclusive.
Dream Dont Cheats On SPEEDRUN you are a big lie😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
Thanks dad
I wonder if Ant will be invited to the next manhunt lmao
Based
Something I don't understand is, in what way did Dream cheat? How did he do it? There are always accusations against Dream that claim he cheated but none of them describe with evidence the way he cheated its always just been here are the numbers so he must have cheated. Why has no actually found the real way he cheated then besides from just assumption? Thats really the main hole I see on why I can't choose a side, the numbers are against dream but if it is so obvious he cheated where is that hard evidence of how he cheated to close the case? What did he do to his game to get those odds that is not based on assumption?
This is a well put together video and everything was easy to understand! Also, I would love to see a reaction to Dream's next manhunt 😀
so did they factor the top 15 run?
Absolutely pathetic
But why do you use binomial distribution? For all runs!!! It can be biased in favor of Dream or against him. It's just not a correct statistic. That's not how you work with data. I appreciate your effort to present just facts but unfortunately this attempt is completely failed.
An extremely solid video!
Dream would be insane to cheat. there are just too many people analysing everything he does
I watched alot of these dream "fake" speedrun videos and still don't know what he got in a 1 in a 20 sixtillion chance drop…. :/
Who’s here after Dream got fucking doxxed?
If you still think Dream didn't cheat then you can go look at the trillions of simulations.
bruh the music reminds me of the cicada video
bruh . you are just trying to simulate the dreamxd and mods video but no one actually care